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New Super Mario Bros. - 1UP Mushroom House Odds Guide
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v1.2
By Chris Graham
somestrangeflea@hotmail.co.uk
I. Foreword
II. Version History
III. Introduction
IV. Chance Lookup Table
A. Arranged by Prize Value (Lowest First)
B. Arranged by Chance (Highest First)
V. Detailed Chance
A. 1UP
B. 2UP
C. 3UP
D. 4UP
E. 5UP
F. 6UP
G. 7UP
H. 8UP
I. 9UP
J. 10UP
K. 11UP
L. 12UP
VI. Legal Notice
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I. Foreword
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Hey! It's me again with a guide on the odds of winning 1UPs from
the Mushroom House in New Super Mario Bros. If you have any
problems/suggestions then feel free to e-mail me at any of the above
e-mail addresses.
Have fun!
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II. Version History
-------------------
v1.2 - 5.62kb - Updated contact info.
v1.1 - 5.67kb - Info added at top of section V
v1.0 - 5.18kb - All information added.
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III. Introduction
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In the mushroom house, six cards are displayed, these are:
1UP
1UP
1UP
3UP
x2
Bowser
The cards are then mixed. The player selects cards until the Bowser
card is selected, when the player must stop. The x2 card doubles
everything the player has selected so far.
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IV. Chance Lookup Table
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These chances are worked out in Section V. The chance has been
calculated under the assumption that neither the x2 nor the Bowser
card can be selected as the first card.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A. Arranged by Prize Value (Lowest First)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Prize|Chance
-----|------
1UP  |15%
2UP  |11.25%
3UP  |10%
4UP  |11.25%
5UP  |10%
6UP  |10%
7UP  |6.25%
8UP  |3.75%
9UP  |7.5%
10UP |6.25%
11UP |3.75%
12UP |5%
------------
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
B. Arranged by Chance (Highest First)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Prize|Chance
-----|------
1UP  |15%
2UP  |11.25%
4UP  |11.25%
3UP  |10%
5UP  |10%
6UP  |10%
9UP  |7.5%
7UP  |6.25%
10UP |6.25%
12UP |5%
8UP  |3.75%
11UP |3.75%
Suprisingly, there is a higher chance of you winning the highest
possible prize, 12UP, than winning either 8UP or 11UP.
Also, despite the fact that there is only one scenario in which this
is possible, the chances of winning 1UP are higher than winning
anything else.
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V. Detailed Chance
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The chance of any given scenario occuring is the chance of each card
in that scenario showing up, multiplied together.
The total chance of winning a prize is found by finding the chance
of each of the scenarios in which that prize can be won, and adding
them all together.
The amount of 1UPs will be stated, with the scenarios in which they
can be won given below them. At the bottom of the section is the
overall chance of winning that prize.
++++++
A. 1UP
++++++
1UP, Bowser = 3 in 20
Total Chance = 15%
++++++
B. 2UP
++++++
1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 3 in 40
1UP, x2, Bowser = 3 in 80
Total Chance = 11.25%
++++++
C. 3UP
++++++
3UP, Bowser = 1 in 20
1UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40
1UP, x2, 1UP, Boswer = 1 in 40
Total Chance = 10%
++++++
D. 4UP
++++++
3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 3 in 80
1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 3 in 80
1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 40
1UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 11.25%
++++++
E. 5UP
++++++
3UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40
1UP, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40
1UP, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 40
1UP, x2, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 10%
++++++
F. 6UP
++++++
3UP, 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, x2, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, x2, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 10%
++++++
G. 7UP
++++++
3UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, x2, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, x2, 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, x2, 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 6.25%
++++++
H. 8UP
++++++
3UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
3UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 3.75%
++++++
I. 9UP
++++++
3UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40
1UP, 3UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40
3UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 7.5%
+++++++
J. 10UP
+++++++
3UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 3UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
3UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 3UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 6.25%
+++++++
K. 11UP
+++++++
3UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 3UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 3UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 3.75%
+++++++
L. 12UP
+++++++
3UP, 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
1UP, 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80
Total Chance = 5%
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VI. Legal Notice
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This guide is not to be sold, in whole or part, in any way. The list
of sites allowed access to this guide is:
http://www.neoseeker.com
http://www.ign.com
If this guide is on any other website, contact me immediately.
Thank You
Copyright 2007 Chris Graham